Archive for Probability Thinking

Super Bowl Outcome influenced by Probabilities?

The recent Super Bowl had an exciting finish, which was heavily influenced by the use of Probabilities. What? Yes, you read it correctly – Probabilities.

The post game analysis shows the Seahawks choose to take a higher risk probability than a low risk probability. Listening to the Coach after the game discussing the choice made, it became obvious the selection was – at best – an overly optimistic one. The risk factor discussed was based upon a catch or a miss alternative on the pass play. The thought of a turnover was left out of the discussion.

Now, the probabilities of success are the same in business as it is in football. There are risk factors for both on a daily basis. Choices are made by leaders with both good and bad results. The best leaders are the ones who limit the bad and excel in making better choices on a consistent basis.

Thus, the dialogue regarding probabilities. Probabilities are in play for everything we do and factor into our daily decisions. The real question for each of us to consider is… Read More →

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