The recent Super Bowl had an exciting finish, which was heavily influenced by the use of Probabilities. What? Yes, you read it correctly – Probabilities.
The post game analysis shows the Seahawks choose to take a higher risk probability than a low risk probability. Listening to the Coach after the game discussing the choice made, it became obvious the selection was – at best – an overly optimistic one. The risk factor discussed was based upon a catch or a miss alternative on the pass play. The thought of a turnover was left out of the discussion.
Now, the probabilities of success are the same in business as it is in football. There are risk factors for both on a daily basis. Choices are made by leaders with both good and bad results. The best leaders are the ones who limit the bad and excel in making better choices on a consistent basis.
Thus, the dialogue regarding probabilities. Probabilities are in play for everything we do and factor into our daily decisions. The real question for each of us to consider is…
Do We Honor the Role of Probabilities in Our Choices?
Personally, I was not a fan of anything that sounded like a math problem for most of my life. And, due to this lack of thinking on my part, I made more than my share of “dumb” choices. This is not about gambling or anything like that, it is about thinking about risk factors and applying a probability of success factor to my thoughts and decision criteria.
Leaders of organizations need to use this form of variables identification and giving thought to the probabilities of success for each variable. Then looking at the optimized choice relative to the situation, make a decision focusing upon the results to be achieved.
Notice, I did not say, make a decision to eliminate all risk factors. That is the losers game plan. If there is NO RISK, the rewards will be very small to negative. Taking a risk is what the great leaders do to achieve greater results. Yet, they use Probability Thinking as part of their decision making process. Balancing the Risk to Reward ratio is about Probability Thinking.
Look at your decision making process. Are you looking at all possible alternatives? Then thinking about the Probability of Success with each alternative? You are responsible for making your choices in life, using Probabilities to Optimize Your Performance is a Criteria Skill. TIP: Resist the first answer that pops into your head. Think of three possible right answers to any problem or opportunity. Then, give thought as to which alternative has the highest probability of success for the choice to be made. Then watch as your decisions improve the quality of your life.
If you would like assistance in improving your personal performance, give me a call at 901-757-4434 to discuss your newest probability of success.
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